以球權數與相關數據探討規則改變對指標國家職業籃球得分與比賽節奏的影響

Abstract

籃球規則是工作限制的一種，當修改規則時，應會影響運動表現。本研究探討改變時間類和場地類規則對比賽節奏、得分與進攻表現的影響。以美國與西班牙男、女共4個職業籃球聯盟為研究對象，分析規則改變前後的表現變化。在擷取各聯盟官方網站的例行與季後賽逐場統計數據，以及規則改變發生時間後，採用單因子變異數分析或Kruskal-Wallis test檢驗規則改動前後3季間的差異，顯著水準設為α=.01。研究結果顯示，時間類規則改變中，總時間分配改變與主要球權時間減少的啟用，使各聯盟例行賽與季後賽的比賽節奏加快，產生額外的控球機會，增加投籃機會和失誤；進攻籃板後進攻時間縮短規則亦使比賽節奏和得分提升，但四個聯盟間受影響程度不同，且影響在例行賽比季後賽更為顯著；犯規後進攻時間縮短規則亦能觀察到比賽節奏和得分增加，但可能受同期其他規則調整影響。場地類規則改變中，三分線距離改變影響兩分球與三分球出手數，但對得分與總投籃數的影響因聯盟而異；禁區面積改變可能提高兩分球出手數，但因同時實施的其他規則改變，難以從攻守紀錄表中明確觀察其影響。

Basketball rules serve as the task constraint for basketball performance, and when modified, they are expected to affect basketball performance. This study examined the impact of time-related and court-related rule changes on basketball’s game pace, scores, and offensive performance. The game-by-game statistics of the professional men’s and women’s basketball leagues from the United States and Spain were collected for the regular seasons and the playoffs from the official website of each league—data from 3 seasons before and 3 seasons after the respective rule changes were used for analyses. The one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis test was used to examine the effect of six seasons spanned over rule changes. The significance level was set at .01. Results showed that time-related rule changes, such as the total time allocation and reduction in main possession time, accelerated game pace in both the regular season and playoff, generating additional ball possessions and increasing shooting opportunities and turnovers. Shortening possession time after offensive rebounds also increased game pace and scoring. However, the extent of impact varied among the four leagues and was more pronounced in the regular season compared to playoffs. Reducing possession time after fouls also led to observable increases in game pace and scoring, though this may have been influenced by other rule changes at the same time. Regarding court-related rule changes, modifications to the three-point distance affected the number of two-point and three-point shot attempts—however, the impact on scoring and total shot attempts varied by league. Changes in the key area potentially increased two-point shot attempts, but other concurrent rule changes made it difficult to identify the effect from the box score data.