地形指數模式在臺灣北部山地集水區降雨逕流之模擬
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Date
2007-11-??
Authors
黃誌川
高樹基
郭鎮維
李宗祐
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
地理學系
Department of Geography, NTNU
Department of Geography, NTNU
Abstract
本文所建構的3-layer TOMODEL，結合了地表逕流、中間水流以及地下水流三個部份，分別以擴散波模式、土壤含水量以及指數遞減函數推估之。敏感性分析結果顯示D（土壤深 度）、K（水力傳導度）以及mi（土壤含水量遞減率）主探了模擬的水文歷線形狀以及總流量，且對於上述三種、水流有明顯的影響。本文將TOPMODEL應 用了18個降雨事件於橫溪集水區當中，事件的總降雨量變異相當大（81-1026mm）。由最適參數組分析得的平均效率係數，對於用來率定的14個事件為 75.1%，對於用來驗證的4個事件為77.3%。大部分驗證事件的流量在率定事件的90%信賴區間內，此結果證明了3-layer TOPMODEL應用於本案例地區有不錯的效果。此外，不確定性分析這方面的研究應該進一步濚入以做為未來模擬結果的參考範圍，則可增加評估時的信速程度 與模擬結果的應用性。
A three-layer TOPMODEL is here constructed by integrating three components, diffusion wave approach into surface flow, soil moisture deficit into interflow and exponential recession curve function into base flow. Sensitivity analysis reveals that D (soil depth), K (hydraulic conductivity), and m, (soil moisture decay) predominate simulated hydrograph shape and total discharge, yet, there are distinct effects on the three components. Eighteen typhoon-induced storms with various rainfall type and wide-ranged rainfall intensity (81 to 1026 mm in total within 6 to 77 hours) in a subtropical mountainous watershed, Heng-Chi, were applied. After optimizing parameters, the global best-fitted combination give and average efficient coefficient of 75.1% and 77.3% for calibration (14 cases) and validation (4 cases) respectively. Comparison of observed and simulated discharges among all calibration events shows that most discharges of validation events fall within the 90% confidence interval. Those results represent capability of the newly developed 3-layer TOPMODEL in simulating storm hydrographs in subtropical watershed. It demonstrates that the model simulations are reliable and the uncertainty assessment is an interesting urgent issue which needs deserved attentions.
A three-layer TOPMODEL is here constructed by integrating three components, diffusion wave approach into surface flow, soil moisture deficit into interflow and exponential recession curve function into base flow. Sensitivity analysis reveals that D (soil depth), K (hydraulic conductivity), and m, (soil moisture decay) predominate simulated hydrograph shape and total discharge, yet, there are distinct effects on the three components. Eighteen typhoon-induced storms with various rainfall type and wide-ranged rainfall intensity (81 to 1026 mm in total within 6 to 77 hours) in a subtropical mountainous watershed, Heng-Chi, were applied. After optimizing parameters, the global best-fitted combination give and average efficient coefficient of 75.1% and 77.3% for calibration (14 cases) and validation (4 cases) respectively. Comparison of observed and simulated discharges among all calibration events shows that most discharges of validation events fall within the 90% confidence interval. Those results represent capability of the newly developed 3-layer TOPMODEL in simulating storm hydrographs in subtropical watershed. It demonstrates that the model simulations are reliable and the uncertainty assessment is an interesting urgent issue which needs deserved attentions.