以外顯因素、虛擬社群分析中華職棒觀眾人數
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2018
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中華職棒是台灣最盛行的職業運動，觀眾的多寡關係到球隊的營收，是職棒能否長久經營的關鍵。國內外有許多與進場觀眾人數相關的研究，影響觀眾人數多寡的因素頗多，有些與時間相關、有些與戰績相關、有些與地理相關，還有許多其它種類的因素。MLB與觀眾人數相關的研究已有一定的成果，中華職棒類似的研究較少，本研究以中華職棒2011-2015年觀眾人數為研究議題，採用約50個自變數，多元迴歸調整後的R2為.768。
地理學常以現實世界為研究對象，對新興的網路空間較少著墨，本研究試圖結合棒球與網路空間，探討虛擬社群的人數變化能否應用在棒球經營。使用PTT三個討論板的人氣資料分析觀眾人數時，相關係數較差，但三個自變數都有達到顯著水準，由於網路空間和現實世界有些許差異，在納入現實世界的幾個因素後，能獲得更佳的成果，這顯示網路資料確實能應用在觀眾人數的分析，值得日後投入更多資源進行研究。
Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) is the most popular professional sport in Taiwan. The revenue is the key to whether CPBL could keep long-term sustainability, which is related to the numbers of attendance. Many domestic and international researches have conducted in the numbers ofattendance and there are many factors that influence the numbers of attendance; for example, some are related to the timing, whilst some others are connectedwith the standings, weather, geographic locations, and many other factors. Researches regarding the numbers of Major League Baseball’s (MLB) attendance have reached to a certain degree of results while the ones related to CPBL are rather fewer. This thesis reviews the numbers of CPBL’s attendance from 2011 to 2015 and evaluates the numbers of attendance during the regular seasons of CPBL. Using about 50 independent variables and the R-squared adjusted by multiple regression is .768. Geography is a study that generally researches on the reality that happens in the physical world rather than the emerging concepts of the cyberspace. This thesis aims to combine baseball and cyberspace, probing into whether the numbers of virtual communities could be applied to baseball management. As a result, the correlation coefficient is poor if merely considers the numbers of the three boards from the PTT Bulletin Board System [1], though each of them has reached a significant level. Because the cyberspace and the real world are somewhat different, the mode is more precise after combining some other external factors. This shows that the network data could be applied to the analysis of the audience, and it is worth investing more resources in the future. [1] PTT Bulletin Board System (PTT) is the largest terminal-based bulletin board system (BBS) based in Taiwan.
Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) is the most popular professional sport in Taiwan. The revenue is the key to whether CPBL could keep long-term sustainability, which is related to the numbers of attendance. Many domestic and international researches have conducted in the numbers ofattendance and there are many factors that influence the numbers of attendance; for example, some are related to the timing, whilst some others are connectedwith the standings, weather, geographic locations, and many other factors. Researches regarding the numbers of Major League Baseball’s (MLB) attendance have reached to a certain degree of results while the ones related to CPBL are rather fewer. This thesis reviews the numbers of CPBL’s attendance from 2011 to 2015 and evaluates the numbers of attendance during the regular seasons of CPBL. Using about 50 independent variables and the R-squared adjusted by multiple regression is .768. Geography is a study that generally researches on the reality that happens in the physical world rather than the emerging concepts of the cyberspace. This thesis aims to combine baseball and cyberspace, probing into whether the numbers of virtual communities could be applied to baseball management. As a result, the correlation coefficient is poor if merely considers the numbers of the three boards from the PTT Bulletin Board System [1], though each of them has reached a significant level. Because the cyberspace and the real world are somewhat different, the mode is more precise after combining some other external factors. This shows that the network data could be applied to the analysis of the audience, and it is worth investing more resources in the future. [1] PTT Bulletin Board System (PTT) is the largest terminal-based bulletin board system (BBS) based in Taiwan.
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中華職棒, 觀眾人數, 虛擬社群, PTT, Chinese Professional Baseball League, Attendance, Virtual Community, PTT