股吧投資人意見建構投資組合之探究
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2022
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Abstract
近年來，因網際網路的普及，使得個別投資人較易交換訊息。許多網路投資平台應運而生，讓投資人可以在網路平台發表意見，許多投資人也會對自己所認同的看法轉發文章，形成看漲或看跌情緒，網路投資平台對股票市場的影響力與日俱增。投資人能否根據網路投資平台看漲或看跌情緒形成投資組合以獲利是一重要課題，因此，本研究檢視以股吧投資人情緒建構投資組合能否打敗大盤。本研究以2018年至2020年在中國東方財富網股吧所發布的文本做文意分析，並以股吧看漲帖子數量、比例以及看漲情緒指數建構投資組合。本研究旨在檢視我們建構投資組合之Sharpe Ratio是否超越大盤。本研究將上海證券交易所交易的股票根據市值大小分為大、中、小股票池，再將不同籌碼指標根據不同週期參數形成投資組合。實證分析結果顯示，本研究根據四項籌碼指標所建構投資組合的Sharpe Ratio與累積報酬率都有超越大盤之表現。然本研究樣本期間之中國股市受中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎疫情等因素影響，股市波動較其他期間劇烈，此為本研究之限制。
In recent years, the popularity of the Internet has made it easier for individual investors to exchange information. As a result, many online investment platforms have been established. Investors express their opinions on online platforms. Many investors also repost the articles they agree with and form bullish or bearish sentiments. The influence of online investment platforms on the stock market gradually increases. It is crucial to know whether investors can construct investment portfolios based on bullish or bearish sentiment on online investment platforms to make profits. Therefore, this study examines whether the investment portfolio constructed based on investor sentiment can beat the broader market.This study does textual analyses using texts published in Guba of Eastmoney from 2018 to 2020. This study constructs investment portfolios based on the number and proportion of bullish sentiment as well as bullish sentiment. This study aims to examine whether our investment portfolios' Sharpe ratio outperforms the market. Stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are divided into large, medium, and small stock pools by market value. This study constructs investment portfolios based on different chip indicators with various cycle parameters. The empirical results show that the Sharpe Ratio and cumulative return of the investment portfolio constructed according to the four chip indicators have outperformed the market. The limitation of this study is that the stockmarket's volatility is more severe than in other periods because the Chinese stock market during the sample period of this study was affected by factors such as the China-US trade war and the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic.
In recent years, the popularity of the Internet has made it easier for individual investors to exchange information. As a result, many online investment platforms have been established. Investors express their opinions on online platforms. Many investors also repost the articles they agree with and form bullish or bearish sentiments. The influence of online investment platforms on the stock market gradually increases. It is crucial to know whether investors can construct investment portfolios based on bullish or bearish sentiment on online investment platforms to make profits. Therefore, this study examines whether the investment portfolio constructed based on investor sentiment can beat the broader market.This study does textual analyses using texts published in Guba of Eastmoney from 2018 to 2020. This study constructs investment portfolios based on the number and proportion of bullish sentiment as well as bullish sentiment. This study aims to examine whether our investment portfolios' Sharpe ratio outperforms the market. Stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are divided into large, medium, and small stock pools by market value. This study constructs investment portfolios based on different chip indicators with various cycle parameters. The empirical results show that the Sharpe Ratio and cumulative return of the investment portfolio constructed according to the four chip indicators have outperformed the market. The limitation of this study is that the stockmarket's volatility is more severe than in other periods because the Chinese stock market during the sample period of this study was affected by factors such as the China-US trade war and the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic.
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Keywords
股吧, 投資人情緒, 投資組合, 夏普比率, Guba, Investor Sentiment, Investment portfolio, Sharpe Ratio