股吧投資專家對分析師盈餘預測時間點影響之探究

Abstract

證券分析師在證券市場中扮演資訊搜集和傳遞的角色，並能夠運用自身專業知識與能力提供研究報告。近年來上海證券交易所及深圳證券交易所快速發展，分析師的研究報告逐漸受到機構投資人和個別投資人重視，成為其執行投資策略的重要參考依據。隨著中國的網際網路普及率提高，許多投資專家開始於網路投資平台「股吧」發表自己的投資觀點和對公司的看法，投資人可以從股吧上獲得相關資訊，使得分析師產生來自於股吧投資專家的競爭壓力與威脅。本研究目的係檢視具有影響力的投資專家於股吧發表意見，是否會使追蹤相同公司的分析師傾向即時地修正盈餘預測。實證結果顯示，在2017年和2018年，相較於缺乏有影響力股吧投資專家發表看法的公司，有影響力股吧專家發表意見的公司，分析師盈餘預測修正次數顯著較高。此外，實證結果顯示，具影響力的股吧專家對公司發表看法並未使分析師即時修正盈餘預測。Securities analysts play a role in information gathering and dissemination in the securities market. They can use their professional knowledge and ability to provide research reports. Along with the rapid development of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in recent years, analyst research reports have gradually received attention from institutional investors and individual investors. Investors regard analyst research reports as crucial references when they implement investment strategies.With an increase in the internet penetration rate in China, many investment experts started to express their investment opinions and insights of the company on the online investment platform (i.e., Gub). Investors can obtain information from Gub. Analysts encounter competitive pressure and threats from the investment experts of Gub. The purpose of this research is to examine whether analysts who follow the same company tend to revise earnings forecasts more timely when influential investment experts express their opinion on Gub.The empirical results show that compared with companies without the influential investment experts’ opinions of Gub, companies with influential experts have significantly higher number of analyst earnings forecast revisions in 2017 and 2018. In addition, empirical results show that analysts who follow the same firms do not revise earnings forecasts more timely when influential investment experts express their opinion on Gub.