股吧投資專家對不同產業經驗分析師盈餘預測偏誤影響之探究

Abstract

證券分析師於資本市場作為資訊中介者的角色，利用自身的財務專業經驗，提供投資人專業的研究報告，降低投資人與公司間資訊不對稱的情形。隨著中國網路普及，網路投資平台成為投資人發表意見及取得資訊的管道，造就具有影響力股吧投資專家的出現，對分析師形成競爭壓力。本研究係檢視具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入後，相較於產業經驗不足的分析師，產業經驗豐富分析師的盈餘預測偏頗及錯誤是否降低幅度較大。實證結果顯示，在具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入公司進行分析，分析師的產業經驗與盈餘預測偏頗變動顯著為正，亦即股吧投資專家首次加入後，會使產業經驗豐富分析師盈餘預測偏頗增加。此外，當具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入公司進行分析，相較於產業經驗不足的分析師，產業經驗豐富的分析師盈餘預測錯誤變動未顯著降低。

As an information intermediary in the capital market, securities analysts use their professional financial experience to provide investors with research reports and reduce information asymmetry between investors and companies. With the popularity of the internet in China, online investment platforms have become a channel for investors to express their opinions and obtain information. The online investment platforms create influential Gub investment experts, who become competitive pressure on analysts. This study examines whether the magnitude of earnings forecast biases and errors of industry-experienced analysts are significantly reduced compared with less-experienced analysts after the influential Gub investment experts analyze a company for the first time.The empirical results show that the change in earnings forecast biases of more industry-experienced analysts is significantly positive after the influential Gub investment experts analyze a company for the first time. It indicates that earnings forecasts biases of more industry experienced analysts increase after the influential Gub investment experts analyze a company for the first time. In addition, compared with less industry experienced analysts, the change of earnings forecasts errors of more industry experienced analysts was not significantly reduced after the influential Gub investment experts analyze a company for the first time.