投資人情緒是否影響股票的填息概況？

Abstract

投資股票的獲利不外乎從資本利得中買低賣高從中賺取價差亦或是賺取穩定的股息收入，想要真正賺取到股息收入的前提是股票必須要有完成填息的動作，否則會產生「賺了股息，賠了價差」的情況發生，因此了解到公司究竟因為什麼因素較容易完成填息對想要長期擁有穩定收入的的存股族來說就顯得格外重要。股票價格不僅受到公司收益以及股利等理性經濟因素所驅動，還會受到投資人情緒、動量和羊群效應等社會和心理因素所驅動。而本篇作者納入投資人情緒的角度探討其對個股填息天數是否有什麼影響。本論文將投資人情緒分類為整體市場、外資、投信、自營商以及散戶，分別探討各自情緒對填息天數會造成的影響。實證結果顯示，投資人情緒會顯著影響個股的填息天數。而不論是整體市場、外資、投信、自營商或散戶的間接情緒指標皆與填息天數呈現顯著的負相關，也就是當個類別投資人對個股的未來走向持樂觀的態度時，會積極進入股票市場交易該個股且對該個股淨買入，因此縮短個股填息的天數，反之亦然。此外作者還將研究樣本分類為價值型投資組合及成長型投資組合，發現到成長型投資組合的填息天數顯著短於價值型投資組合。而投資人情緒是影響價值型投資組合填息天數的重要影響因素之一。反之，投資人情緒對成長股的填息天數無顯著影響，而是個股的現金股利殖利率對其有顯著的影響。The profitability of investing in stocks primarily comes from buying low and selling high to generate capital gains, or earning stable dividend income. To truly earn dividend income, it is crucial for stocks to complete the recovery from ex-dividends. Otherwise, there may be a situation where one gains dividends but loses out on the price difference, leading to an undesirable outcome. Therefore, understanding the factors that contribute to the completion of recovery from ex-dividends by companies is particularly important for individuals seeking long-term, stable income from holding stocks. Stock prices are not only driven by rational economic factors such as company earnings and dividends but also by social and psychological factors such as investor sentiment, momentum, and herding behavior.This article explores the impact of investor sentiment on the number of days until recovery from ex-dividends for individual stocks. The author categorizes investor sentiment into overall market sentiment, foreign investors, institutional investors, proprietary traders, and retail investors, investigating the respective effects of their sentiment on the days of recovery from ex-dividends. The empirical results demonstrate that investor sentiment significantly affects the days of recovery from ex-dividends for individual stocks. Regardless of whether it is overall market sentiment, foreign investors, institutional investors, proprietary traders, or retail investors, all indirect sentiment indicators show a significant negative correlation with the days of recovery from ex-dividends. This means that when investors in a particular category hold an optimistic outlook on the future performance of a stock, they actively engage in trading that stock and exhibit a net buying position, thereby shortening the days of recovery from ex-dividends. The reverse is also true.Additionally, the author classifies the research sample into value-oriented portfolios and growth-oriented portfolios and discovers that the days of recovery from ex-dividends for growth-oriented portfolios are significantly shorter than those for value-oriented portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the important influencing factors on the days of recovery from ex-dividends for value-oriented portfolios. Conversely, investor sentiment does not have a significant impact on the number of days until dividend payment for growth stocks; instead, the cash dividend yield of individual stocks has a significant effect.