具中輟經驗犯罪者之家庭脈絡分析：一個由司法回溯的觀點

Abstract

本研究旨在深入理解中輟經驗與犯罪行為之間的關聯。中輟生犯罪在新聞媒體上長期反覆出現，型態多樣，然而過往研究鮮少探討中輟生畢業或離開學校後，其未來可能走向何種具體「犯罪型態」。因此，本研究目的在於分析這類犯罪者未成年時期的家庭/個人風險（父母雙親風險、經濟貧困風險、家人生病風險、自身殘疾風險），以及其成年時期所涉犯罪類型（侵害人身法益、侵害財產法益、侵害社會法益、違犯毒品管制）之間的關聯性。研究方法採取由司法回溯的觀點，從司法院裁判書系統中，以「中輟」或「輟學」為關鍵字篩選出判決書作為研究對象。解釋變數為未成年時期風險，被解釋變數為成年時期犯罪類型。資料分析包括多元羅吉斯迴歸和區別分析。研究結果顯示「自身殘疾風險」顯著提高涉入「侵害人身法益」的可能性；而「經濟貧困風險」則顯著預測涉入「違犯毒品管制」的可能性。區別分析結果進一步支持這些關鍵關聯性，模型對於「侵害人身法益」的分類正確率最高，「違犯毒品管制」次高。質性案例分析的具體描述也與量化結果相互呼應。此外，研究觀察到近年來法院判決越來越重視犯罪者所來自的「結構劣勢」。綜合結論，未成年時期的「自身殘疾風險」與成年後「侵害人身法益」犯罪有顯著關聯；「經濟貧困風險」則與「違犯毒品管制」有顯著關聯。這些不利因素對於侵害人身法益和毒品管制的預測力較佳，但對於侵害社會法益的預測力則相對較弱。本研究強調「中輟」是一個關鍵的結構性轉折，它會放大原有的家庭風險，使個體在成年後走向特定的犯罪型態，且這種預測力是持續且可辨識的。This study explores the link between school dropout experiences and later criminal behavior. While dropout-related juvenile crime is often discussed in the media, little research has examined the specific types of crimes dropouts commit in adulthood. Focusing on adolescent risk factors, such as parental absence, poverty, family illness, and disability, the study analyzes their association with adult crime types, including offenses against personal rights, property, society, and drug laws. Using court verdicts from Taiwan Judicial Yuan and selecting cases with keywords, dropout or school dropout, our results show that adolescent disability risk is strongly associated with personal offenses, while poverty predicts drug violations. Discriminant analysis confirms these links, with the highest classification accuracy for personal offenses. The study also notes increasing judicial awareness of structural disadvantage. Overall, school dropout is identified as a key turning point that magnifies early risks, influencing specific, predictable criminal pathways in adulthood.