新聞情緒及關注程度對台灣證券市場影響之探討

Abstract

新冠疫情不僅改變了一般民眾的生活型態，也對台灣證券市場造成巨大的影響，2021年5月台灣疫情爆發，負面新聞帶來的恐慌情緒在廣大投資群眾間蔓延，也因此創下了加權指數單日最高跌幅的歷史紀錄。負面情緒使得許多績效優秀的個股受到非理性的股價重挫，可見投資人情緒及事件的關注程度對金融市場影響甚劇。本文將新聞文本中的文字情緒量化，並結合網路搜索量的變化率，以迴歸模型探討2019年初至2021年底之間的個股新聞及關注程度對於台灣證券市場的影響。實證結果顯示新聞情緒及關注程度對於個股報酬率、流動性、機構投資人的交易行為皆有顯著的正面影響。Covid-19 has not only changed our daily life but also hugely impacted the Taiwan stock market. In May 2021, the epidemic broke out in Taiwan. The panic caused by negative reporting spread among most of the investors, which caused the most tremendous shock in the Taiwan securities market. Negative sentiment caused many high-performing stocks to suffer irrational stock price crashing, demonstrating that investors’ sentiment and attention to the events have a significant impact on financial markets. This research quantifies the textual sentiment in news texts and combines the rate of change in search volume index, and then uses a regression model to explore the impact of news and the level of concentration on the Taiwan stock market from early 2019 to the end of 2021. The empirical results show that news sentiment and attention have significant positive effects on stock returns, liquidity, and institutional investors' trading behavior.